David Murrin Keynote Speaker

David Murrin is one of the world’s most respected geopolitical forecasters, prized on both sides of the Atlantic by hedge-fund managers, defence planners and private strategists seeking clarity in uncertain times. Drawing on a physicist’s training and a dyslexic, pattern-recognising mindset, he decodes collective human behaviour to anticipate seismic shifts in power, markets and conflict. His seminal work, Breaking the Code of History (2009), introduced a unified theory of civilisational dynamics that continues to guide leaders navigating today’s rapid transition from West to East.

From studying tribal societies in Papua New Guinea to building JP Morgan’s first European proprietary trading desk (1984–1991) and co-founding Emergent Asset Management in 1997, Murrin has tested his ideas in the real world of risk. After 9/11 he expanded his scope beyond finance, formulating the Five Stages of Empire model in 2002—now applied by investors, corporates and governments to stress-test strategy and seize opportunity.

Through his consultancy Global Forecaster, Murrin delivers data-driven insight across four critical domains: empire rise and decline, macro-economic cycles, the evolving character of warfare, and constructive versus destructive human behaviour. His mission is stark yet optimistic: equip decision-makers to steer humanity through converging challenges—market volatility, AI acceleration, resource competition and climate stress—towards a stable, prosperous future.

In 2021, Murrin published Red Lightning: How the West Lost World War III to China in 2025, a provocative blend of strategic foresight and speculative fiction that warns of the consequences of Western complacency in the face of rising Eastern power.

On stage, Murrin couples razor-sharp historical analogies with actionable foresight, offering audiences practical tools to read early-warning signals, neutralise bias and lead decisively amid volatility.