Predicting the end of China’s Zero-Covid policy has been a favourite guessing game for political pundits and virologists alike. It now seems that the CCP’s hand has been forced by recent protests. In the largest display of civil obedience since 1989, crowds took to the streets in China’s biggest cities in defiance of onerous Covid restrictions. Commentators speculated that the flashpoint was a fire in an Urumqi housing block. Residents were said to have died as they were unable to exit the locked down building. 

Henry Gao, law professor and prominent China watcher, predicted the Zero-Covid policy would end between October 2022 to March 2023. As the policy becomes increasingly unpopular, ambitious local officials are less likely to pursue it as proof of their party loyalty. Henry also mentioned the escalating financial costs of aggressive PCR testing and lockdowns. These expenses may soon become untenable to local officials. 

How quickly might the policy be unwound? Restrictions in major cities like Guangzhou were abruptly lifted last Wednesday. A community in Beijing allowed mild Covid cases to isolate at home, signalling a shift away from centralised quarantine. Perhaps the greatest change was seen in senior officials’ rhetoric. Vice-premier Sun Chunlan publicly stated Omicron was a weaker virus than the original strains. But those hoping for a swift exit from the policy, and an easing of global supply chains, may be disappointed.

The Financial Times’ Asia editor, Robin Harding, highlighted his paper’s recent story on the city of Shijiazhuang. The city reopened in the middle of the current Covid wave and vowed to do away with mass testing. Just nine days later, it was locked down again.

Alongside a proposed timeline, people are also asking how China will relax its Covid controls. Yanzhong Huang, a global health expert, says a “nationwide outbreak at this point could be dire.” Writing in the New York Times, he said, “If one-quarter of the Chinese population is infected within the first six months of the government letting its guard down – a rate consistent with what the United States and Europe experienced with Omicron – China could end up with an estimated 363 million infections, some 620,000 deaths, 32,000 daily admissions to intensive-care units and a potential social and political crisis.” 

Any liberalisation of China’s Covid policy will nonetheless be viewed positively by most global policymakers. The country’s rolling lockdowns have been an unwanted external shock adding to a troubled economic landscape. However, some virologists are concerned about the months ahead. Devi Sridhar, Edinburgh University’s Chair of Global Public Health, points to recent reports showing “only about 40% of over-80s have received a booster shot”. This compares unfavourably with other countries who moved away from containment policies. Devi argues that this low vaccination rate endangers the Chinese healthcare system and also puts the entire world at risk. If China is forced to live with Covid before it is ready, a Covid wave could disrupt economic stability by “creating new variants that could set progress back everywhere”.

Over the coming months, China’s Covid policies will change for the first time since January 2020. To help you understand how, when, and what this means, please enquire about our experts below:

Henry Gao
SMU Law Professor and WTO representative

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Robin Harding
Asia Editor of the Financial Times

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Yanzhong Huang
Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations

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Devi Sridhar
Chair of Global Public Health at Edinburgh University and author of Preventable