Q2 2025 Economic Outlook – What Bank Leaders Should Anticipate
As the global economy transitions from the turbulence of recent years into a more fragmented landscape, banking leaders find themselves navigating a delicate recalibration. Rate cycles are shifting, political risk is no longer peripheral, and investor psychology is evolving. Against this backdrop, three leading voices—Jim O’Neill, Wolfgang Münchau, and Merryn Somerset Webb—offer insight not just into what is happening now, but what might happen next…

Jim O’Neill, architect of the BRICs acronym and a trusted voice on macro risk, points to an increasingly fragmented world economy. While the U.S. economy slows under the weight of fiscal strain and political uncertainty, China’s muted recovery casts a long shadow over global demand. For banks, that means preparing for divergent interest rate paths, unpredictable capital flows, and greater exposure to regional shocks.
Europe meanwhile, faces its own turmoil. Wolfgang Münchau, a leading analyst on Eurozone politics and economics, warns that headline stability belies structural weakness. With growth uneven and political consensus fraying, Münchau sees risk not in crisis—but in complacency. Cross-border lenders, in particular, should be alert to regulatory shifts and widening disparities between member states.
At the asset level, Merryn Somerset Webb identifies a fundamental revaluation taking place. A long era of cheap money has ended, and with it, investor assumptions about risk. From private wealth to institutional portfolios, capital is repositioning—toward alternatives, hard assets, and inflation hedges.
Together, these thinkers offer more than economic commentary—they provide a framework for navigating complexity. In an age where risk cannot be divorced from policy or politics, their perspectives are invaluable.

Commercial Secretary to HM Treasury (2015-16) and Chair of Chatham House (2018-21)

Director of Eurointelligence, a leading news service focused on European economics

Senior Columnist at Bloomberg and host of award-winning podcast ‘Merryn Talks Money’